How Many Electric Vehicles Are Coming Off Lease in 2027
By Niccolò Ferrari, Voltest
TL;DR: Industry forecasts put EV lease returns at about 600,000 in 2027, double the 2026 number. Most of these cars were leased in 2024 and still have years left on the factory battery warranty. Battery replacement costs vary widely by make, so test the battery before you bid on one or make an offer.
We have tested over 15,000 used EVs. At two to three years old, the age most 2027 lease returns will be, the median battery in our data still held 94% of its original capacity [1].
Key Takeaways
- About 600,000 EVs are forecast to come off lease in 2027 [2].
- The Tesla Model 3 and Model Y, Honda Prologue, Hyundai Ioniq 5, and Chevrolet Equinox EV were the most-leased EVs at the end of 2024 [3].
- EV batteries are built to last the life of the car. Most 2027 lease returns will still be under the factory battery warranty.
- Battery replacement costs differ a lot by make. Check the warranty years and miles left on every car.
- Test state of health and cell imbalance before you bid or make an offer.
How many electric vehicles are coming off lease in 2027?
Industry forecasts put 2027 EV lease returns at about 600,000, double the 2026 volume [2].
| Year | EVs coming off lease (forecast) |
|---|---|
| 2025 | About 123,000 |
| 2026 | About 300,000 |
| 2027 | About 600,000 |
The jump comes from 2024 leasing. At the end of 2024, more than half of new EVs bought with financing were leased [3]. Leases signed in 2024 with three-year terms end in 2027.
Edmunds expects overall off-lease volume to stop growing after 2027, because leasing slowed in 2025 and 2026 [4]. Some lessees will buy their cars at lease end, so fewer than 600,000 will reach auctions and dealer lots. For what this wave looked like in its first year, see our post on off-lease EVs in 2026.
Which EVs will come off lease in 2027?
Expect mostly 2024 models. These five models had the largest share of new EV leases at the end of 2024 [3].
| Model | Share of new EV leases, Q4 2024 |
|---|---|
| Tesla Model 3 | 12% |
| Tesla Model Y | 9% |
| Honda Prologue | 9% |
| Hyundai Ioniq 5 | 7% |
| Chevrolet Equinox EV | 6% |
The rest of this post covers the four makes behind those models, plus Ford. The Ford Mustang Mach-E was the third best-selling EV in the US in 2024 [5].
How long do these EVs last?
They last far longer than the lease. Geotab's study of fleet EVs found batteries lose about 2% of their capacity a year on average, and Geotab says they are built to last the life of the vehicle [6].
Our test data shows the same pattern. Battery health drops most between years two and five, then levels off [1].
| Vehicle age | Median battery health in our tests |
|---|---|
| 0 to 1 year | 97% |
| 2 to 3 years | 94% |
| 4 to 5 years | 87% |
| 6 to 7 years | 83% |
| 8 to 10 years | 82% |
| 11 years or more | 80% |
The factory battery warranty also outlasts the lease. A 2024 car returned in 2027 still has years of battery coverage left (terms by make are in the next table). In our data, about 5 in 6 used EVs we tested still had both years and miles left on the factory battery warranty [1].
What we see in the models coming off lease
A failure signal in this table means a cell imbalance above 50 mV. That reading separates failing batteries from healthy ones in our data [1].
| Model | Cars we tested | Median age | Median battery health | Cars with a failure signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyundai Ioniq 5 (77 kWh) | 465 | 2 years | 99% | 0 |
| Honda Prologue | 124 | 2 years | 95% | 0 |
| Chevrolet Equinox EV | 111 | 2 years | 95% | 0 |
| Ford Mustang Mach-E | 109 | 3 years | 94% | 0 |
| Tesla Model Y Long Range AWD | 1,638 | 3 years | 87% | 7 (fewer than 1 in 200) |
The Model Y cars we tested had been driven much further than the others, which explains part of the gap in battery health. Zero failure signals so far does not mean zero future risk. Most of these cars are only two or three years old.
What does a battery replacement cost for the top 5 makes?
These are the costs we could verify for each make. A factory list price is for the battery alone, before labor. The factory warranty pays for a covered battery failure, and most 2027 lease returns are still covered.
| Make and model | Battery replacement cost | What this cost covers | Factory battery warranty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla Model 3 | About $13,000 to $17,000 [7] | Reported replacement cost for the 75 to 82 kWh battery, depending on version and labor | 8 years and 100,000 or 120,000 miles, depending on version [8] |
| Ford Mustang Mach-E | $24,901 [9] | Factory list price for the extended-range battery, before labor | 8 years or 100,000 miles [10] |
| Chevrolet Bolt EV | About $12,000 to $16,000 [7] | Reported replacement cost for the 60 kWh battery. Chevrolet does not publish a list price for the Equinox EV battery. | 8 years or 100,000 miles [10] |
| Hyundai Ioniq 5 (2022 to 2024) | $39,160 [11] | Factory list price for the battery system assembly, before labor | 10 years or 100,000 miles, for original and later owners [12] |
| Honda Prologue (2024 to 2025) | $16,118 [13] | Factory list price for the 85 kWh battery, before labor | 8 years or 100,000 miles [14] |
The Hyundai list price is the highest of the five. Its 10-year warranty also transfers to later owners, so most off-lease Ioniq 5s under 100,000 miles are still covered [12].
A full new battery is the most expensive fix. Some battery faults can be repaired by replacing a module, or with a remanufactured battery, for less. More on EV battery replacement cost and repair options.
What should you check before buying a 2027 off-lease EV?
- Test the battery before you bid or make an offer. Battery health varies between cars of the same make, model, and year. Our guide to EV sourcing for dealerships covers testing at auction.
- Check the warranty years and miles left. A Voltest report shows the battery warranty time and miles remaining for that VIN.
- Read the cell imbalance as well as state of health. A high cell imbalance is the clearest sign of a failing battery in our data [1].
- Price the car on the test result. Use the battery health and the warranty left when you set the price.
- Show the report to shoppers. Put the battery health score on the listing so shoppers can see it before they call.
See how EV battery testing for dealerships works.
FAQ
Are 2027 off-lease EVs still under battery warranty?
Most of them are. A 2024 model with an 8-year battery warranty is covered into 2032, unless it passes the mileage limit first. Hyundai's 10-year warranty runs two years longer [12].
Does the battery warranty transfer to the next owner?
For Tesla, the warranty follows the car when the ownership transfer is completed through Tesla [8]. Hyundai lists the same battery coverage for later owners as for the original owner [12]. For other makes, check the warranty booklet for that model year.
How long does an EV battery last?
Most EV batteries are built to last the life of the car [6]. In our tests, the median battery at 8 to 10 years old still held about 82% of its original capacity [1].
What if the factory battery warranty has run out?
A car that passes a Voltest battery test may qualify for an EV battery extended warranty through Voltest Protect.
Sources
- Voltest proprietary battery test data, over 15,000 used EV tests, October 2026.
- CBT News, More than 1 million off-lease EVs to flood used-car market, April 2026.
- Experian, Consumers Leasing EVs at a High Rate, Accounting for Nearly 1-in-5 of All New Leases, March 2025 (Q4 2024 data).
- Edmunds, Used Car Prices Approach Records, But Steeper Depreciation, Growing Off-Lease Inventory Offer Some Relief, May 2026.
- Automotive Fleet, US EV Sales Push to Record 1.3 Million in 2024 (Cox Automotive data), January 2025.
- Electric Autonomy, Latest Geotab study finds EV batteries lose just 2.3 per cent life per year, January 2026.
- iSeeCars, What is the battery replacement cost for today's electric vehicles?
- Tesla, Vehicle Warranty.
- Ford OEM parts listing, Drive Motor Battery Pack Assembly, PK9Z-10B759-U, list price as of October 2026.
- GreenCars, Battery Warranties and Manufacturer Protections, September 2025.
- Hyundai OEM parts listing, Battery System Assembly, 37501-GI301, list price as of October 2026.
- Hyundai, America's Best Warranty.
- Honda OEM parts listing, Battery, High Voltage, 24060879, list price as of October 2026.
- Honda, 2026 Honda Prologue.